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Abstract We present statistical results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration RV planet search program. This survey was designed to measure the occurrence rate of giant planets interior to the water ice line of young Sun-like stars, compare this to the prevalence of giant planets at older ages, and provide constraints on the timescale and dominant inward migration mechanism of giant planets. Our final sample amounts to 85 single young (20–200 Myr) G and K dwarfs that we target across a 4 yr time baseline with the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder spectrograph at McDonald Observatory’s Hobby-Eberly Telescope. As part of this survey, we discovered the young hot Jupiter HS Psc b. We characterize survey detection completeness with realistic injection-recovery tests and measure an occurrence rate of $1.9_{-1.4}^{+2.6}$% for intermediate-age giant planets ( $0.3M_{\mathrm{J}}<m\sin i<13M_{\mathrm{J}}$) within 2.5 au. This is lower than the field age occurrence rate for the same planet masses and separations and favors an increase in the prevalence of giant planets over time from ∼100 Myr to several Gyr, although our results cannot rule out a constant rate. A decaying planet occurrence rate is, however, strongly excluded. This suggests that giant planets located inside the water ice line originate from a combination of in situ formation or early migration coupled with longer-term inward scattering. The completeness-corrected prevalence of young hot Jupiters in our sample is $1.5_{-1.1}^{+2.2}$% —similar to the rate for field stars—and the 95% upper limit for young brown dwarfs within 5000 days is <3.6% . 

Abstract We report the discovery of a hot Jupiter candidate orbiting HS Psc, a K7 (≈0.7M_⊙) member of the ≈130 Myr AB Doradus moving group. Using radial velocities over 4 yr from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder spectrograph at the Hobby–Eberly Telescope, we find a periodic signal of $P_b={3.986}_{-0.003}^{+0.044}$days. A joint Keplerian and Gaussian process stellar activity model fit to the radial velocities yields a minimum mass of $m_p\sin i={1.5}_{-0.4}^{+0.6}$M_Jup. The stellar rotation period is well constrained by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite light curve (P_rot= 1.086 ± 0.003 days) and is not an integer harmonic nor alias of the orbital period, supporting the planetary nature of the observed periodicity. HS Psc b joins a small population of young, close-in giant planet candidates with robust age and mass constraints and demonstrates that giant planets can either migrate to their close-in orbital separations by 130 Myr or form in situ. Given its membership in a young moving group, HS Psc represents an excellent target for follow-up observations to characterize this young hot Jupiter further, refine its orbital properties, and search for additional planets in the system. 

Abstract Recent discoveries of transiting giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars (GEMS), aided by the all-sky coverage of TESS, are starting to stretch theories of planet formation through the core-accretion scenario. Recent upper limits on their occurrence suggest that they decrease with lower stellar masses, with fewer GEMS around lower-mass stars compared to solar-type. In this paper, we discuss existing GEMS both through confirmed planets, as well as protoplanetary disk observations, and a combination of tests to reconcile these with theoretical predictions. We then introduce the Searching for GEMS survey, where we utilize multidimensional nonparameteric statistics to simulate hypothetical survey scenarios to predict the required sample size of transiting GEMS with mass measurements to robustly compare their bulk-density with canonical hot Jupiters orbiting FGK stars. Our Monte Carlo simulations predict that a robust comparison requires about 40 transiting GEMS (compared to the existing sample of ∼15) with 5σmass measurements. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing occurrence estimates for GEMS and provide a brief description of our planned systematic search to improve the occurrence rate estimates for GEMS. 

Abstract We revisit the long-studied radial velocity (RV) target HD 26965 using recent observations from the NASA-NSF “NEID” precision Doppler facility. Leveraging a suite of classical activity indicators, combined with line-by-line RV analyses, we demonstrate that the claimed 45-day signal previously identified as a planet candidate is most likely an activity-induced signal. Correlating the bulk (spectrally averaged) RV with canonical line activity indicators confirms a multiday “lag” between the observed activity indicator time series and the measured RV. When accounting for this lag, we show that much of the observed RV signal can be removed by a linear detrending of the data. Investigating activity at the line-by-line level, we find a depth-dependent correlation between individual line RVs and the bulk RVs, further indicative of periodic suppression of convective blueshift causing the observed RV variability, rather than an orbiting planet. We conclude that the combined evidence of the activity correlations and depth dependence is consistent with an RV signature dominated by a rotationally modulated activity signal at a period of ∼42 days. We hypothesize that this activity signature is due to a combination of spots and convective blueshift suppression. The tools applied in our analysis are broadly applicable to other stars and could help paint a more comprehensive picture of the manifestations of stellar activity in future Doppler RV surveys. 

Abstract The LHS 1610 system consists of a nearby (d= 9.7 pc) M5 dwarf hosting a candidate brown dwarf companion in a 10.6 days, eccentric (e∼ 0.37) orbit. We confirm this brown dwarf designation and estimate its mass ( ${49.5}_{-3.5}^{+4.3}$M_Jup) and inclination (114.5° ${}_{-10.0}^{+7.4}$) by combining discovery radial velocities (RVs) from the Tillinghast Reflector Echelle Spectrograph and new RVs from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder with the available Gaia astrometric two-body solution. We highlight a discrepancy between the measurement of the eccentricity from the Gaia two-body solution (e= 0.52 ± 0.03) and the RV-only solution (e= 0.3702 ± 0.0003). We discuss possible reasons for this discrepancy, which can be further probed when the Gaia astrometric time series become available as part of Gaia Data Release 4. As a nearby mid-M star hosting a massive short-period companion with a well-characterized orbit, LHS 1610 b is a promising target to look for evidence of sub-Alfvénic interactions and/or auroral emission at optical and radio wavelengths. LHS 1610 has a flare rate (0.28 ± 0.07 flares per day) on the higher end for its rotation period (84 ± 8 days), similar to other mid-M dwarf systems such as Proxima Cen and YZ Ceti that have recent radio detections compatible with star–planet interactions. While available Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite photometry is insufficient to determine an orbital phase dependence of the flares, our complete orbital characterization of this system makes it attractive to probe star–companion interactions with additional photometric and radio observations. 

Abstract Using simultaneous multi-filter observations during the transit of an exoplanet around a K dwarf star, we determine the temperature of a starspot through modeling the radius and position with wavelength-dependent spot contrasts. We model the spot using the starspot modeling program STarSPot (STSP), which uses the transiting companion as a knife-edge probe of the stellar surface. The contrast of the spot, i.e., the ratio of the integrated flux of a darker spot region to the star's photosphere, is calculated for a range of filters and spot temperatures. We demonstrate this technique using simulated data of HAT-P-11, a K dwarf (T_eff= 4780 K) with well-modeled starspot properties for which we obtained simultaneous multi-filter transits using Las Cumbres Observatory's MuSCAT3 instrument on the 2m telescope at Haleakala Observatory, which allows for simultaneous, multi-filter, diffuser-assisted high-precision photometry. We determine the average (i.e., a combination of penumbra and umbra) spot temperature for HAT-P-11's spot complexes is 4500 K ± 100 K using this technique. We also find for our set of filters that comparing the SDSS $g^{\prime }$and $i^{\prime }$filters maximizes the signal difference caused by a large spot in the transit. Thus, this technique allows for the determination of the average spot temperature using only one spot occultation in transit and can provide simultaneous information on the spot temperature and spot properties. 

Abstract We confirm TOI-4201 b as a transiting Jovian-mass planet orbiting an early M dwarf discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite. Using ground-based photometry and precise radial velocities from NEID and the Planet Finder Spectrograph, we measure a planet mass of ${2.59}_{-0.06}^{+0.07}$M_J, making this one of the most massive planets transiting an M dwarf. The planet is ∼0.4% of the mass of its 0.63M_⊙host and may have a heavy-element mass comparable to the total dust mass contained in a typical class II disk. TOI-4201 b stretches our understanding of core accretion during the protoplanetary phase and the disk mass budget, necessitating giant planet formation to take place either much earlier in the disk lifetime or perhaps through alternative mechanisms like gravitational instability. 

Theories of planet formation predict that low-mass stars should rarely host exoplanets with masses exceeding that of Neptune. We used radial velocity observations to detect a Neptune-mass exoplanet orbiting LHS 3154, a star that is nine times less massive than the Sun. The exoplanet’s orbital period is 3.7 days, and its minimum mass is 13.2 Earth masses. We used simulations to show that the high planet-to-star mass ratio (>3.5 × 10⁻⁴) is not an expected outcome of either the core accretion or gravitational instability theories of planet formation. In the core-accretion simulations, we show that close-in Neptune-mass planets are only formed if the dust mass of the protoplanetary disk is an order of magnitude greater than typically observed around very low-mass stars. 

Abstract We report the discovery of a close-in (P_orb= 3.349 days) warm Neptune with clear transit timing variations (TTVs) orbiting the nearby (d= 47.3 pc) active M4 star, TOI-2015. We characterize the planet's properties using Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) photometry, precise near-infrared radial velocities (RVs) with the Habitable-zone Planet Finder Spectrograph, ground-based photometry, and high-contrast imaging. A joint photometry and RV fit yields a radius $R_p={3.37}_{-0.20}^{+0.15}{R}_{\oplus }$, mass $m_p={16.4}_{-4.1}^{+4.1}{M}_{\oplus }$, and density ${\rho }_p={2.32}_{-0.37}^{+0.38}\mathrm{g}{\mathrm{cm}}^{-3}$for TOI-2015 b, suggesting a likely volatile-rich planet. The young, active host star has a rotation period ofP_rot= 8.7 ± 0.9 days and associated rotation-based age estimate of 1.1 ± 0.1 Gyr. Though no other transiting planets are seen in the TESS data, the system shows clear TTVs of super-period $P_{\sup }\approx 430\mathrm{days}$and amplitude ∼100 minutes. After considering multiple likely period-ratio models, we show an outer planet candidate near a 2:1 resonance can explain the observed TTVs while offering a dynamically stable solution. However, other possible two-planet solutions—including 3:2 and 4:3 resonances—cannot be conclusively excluded without further observations. Assuming a 2:1 resonance in the joint TTV-RV modeling suggests a mass of $m_b={13.3}_{-4.5}^{+4.7}{M}_{\oplus }$for TOI-2015 b and $m_c={6.8}_{-2.3}^{+3.5}{M}_{\oplus }$for the outer candidate. Additional transit and RV observations will be beneficial to explicitly identify the resonance and further characterize the properties of the system. 

Abstract Giant exoplanets orbiting close to their host stars are unlikely to have formed in their present configurations¹. These ‘hot Jupiter’ planets are instead thought to have migrated inward from beyond the ice line and several viable migration channels have been proposed, including eccentricity excitation through angular-momentum exchange with a third body followed by tidally driven orbital circularization^2,3. The discovery of the extremely eccentric (e = 0.93) giant exoplanet HD 80606 b (ref. ⁴) provided observational evidence that hot Jupiters may have formed through this high-eccentricity tidal-migration pathway⁵. However, no similar hot-Jupiter progenitors have been found and simulations predict that one factor affecting the efficacy of this mechanism is exoplanet mass, as low-mass planets are more likely to be tidally disrupted during periastron passage^6–8. Here we present spectroscopic and photometric observations of TIC 241249530 b, a high-mass, transiting warm Jupiter with an extreme orbital eccentricity ofe = 0.94. The orbit of TIC 241249530 b is consistent with a history of eccentricity oscillations and a future tidal circularization trajectory. Our analysis of the mass and eccentricity distributions of the transiting-warm-Jupiter population further reveals a correlation between high mass and high eccentricity.